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The BVRLA has published its HGV Outlook 2026 report, highlighting a sector under sustained pressure as it balances rising costs, cautious confidence and the realities of decarbonisation.
The new report shows a stable UK HGV parc of just over 520,000 vehicles, but an operating environment where more than 71% of fleets describe conditions as challenging. Persistent inflation in vehicle maintenance and labour costs, combined with regulatory uncertainty, is reshaping how operators invest and manage their fleets.
At the same time, the transition to zero emission trucks is moving from long-term ambition to immediate operational concern. Just 9% of HGV operators surveyed are confident in the business case for zero emission trucks. While there is broad acceptance of the direction of travel, the report identifies a host of key barriers to adoption. Operators cite a clear affordability gap, infrastructure constraints and uncertainty around residual values as factors behind a two-speed transition, where larger fleets are progressing more quickly than smaller firms.
Despite this, the sector is not resistant to change. The findings point to a pragmatic industry adapting its funding models, extending asset lifecycles and exploring new approaches to risk sharing through leasing and rental.
Toby Poston, BVRLA Chief Executive, said: “Road freight sits at the heart of the UK economy, but the sector is now navigating a period of profound structural change. We are just about on track with cars, vans are already way behind, while the decarbonisation outlook for trucks is daunting.
“Operators are not questioning the long-term need to reduce emissions, but they are facing a complex mix of cost pressure, regulatory change and decarbonisation demands. This report shows a sector that is cautious, not complacent. It now needs the Government to learn lessons from cars and vans to make pragmatic decisions on the policy, infrastructure and financial support required to deliver the next and most difficult phase of the transition.”
In addition to analysis of the market structure, business outlook, role of rental and leasing, decarbonisation, and human resource challenges, the report contains a host of further insights from BVRLA members and expert contributors. Affordability, vehicle developments, autonomous trucks, and data & security are all explored in turn, setting out the position of each topic and what operators need to be thinking about.
The full report provides detailed insight into market conditions, fleet behaviour and the challenges shaping the future of UK road freight. It marks the first time the BVRLA has explored the market in this way, with findings shaped by a series of structured industry round tables, a quantitative survey of road freight trade professionals, and extensive desk research.
View or download the full report.
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Executive contributors to the report:
Tim Campbell, Campbells Consultancy
Dr Nick Reed, Reed Mobility
Paul Abbott, Paul Abbott Advisory
Mikael Karlsson, MIKI Innovation
Andy Salter, Salter Advisory
Headline figures from HGV Outlook report (sample: 261 respondents)
- 71% of respondents describe current business conditions as ‘challenging’
- 18% are optimistic about the longer term outlook
- Fleets aligned to vehicle rental and leasing are less likely to describe conditions as challenging (13 percentage points less likely compared to predominantly operator-controlled fleets)
- 68% of respondents are not confident in the business case for zero emission HGVs
- 9% are confident
- 65% describe workforce challenges as ‘significant’ or ‘very significant’
