Toby Poston, BVRLA Chief Executive comments: Apparently, we can all relax. Here we are, just over a month into 2025 and media headlines are shouting ‘ZEV Mandate mission accomplished’ and ‘Used EV demand continues to soar’.
While it is good to see some positive, confidence-boosting EV news out there, these headlines are in desperate need of some context.
You don’t have to delve much deeper to reveal the shaky foundations these apparent triumphs are built on. In many respects they are unnatural and unsustainable.
ZEV Mandate targets were achieved through massive OEM discounting and ploughing most vehicles into the fleet channel, Motability and dealer pre-registrations. The new ZEV market is increasingly imbalanced and the lack of comparable retail demand has turned it into a Jenga tower that will topple if anyone fiddles with the Benefit in Kind brick.
Demand for used EVs is increasing, but not enough to absorb the tidal wave of supply coming on to the market. The used EV market growth that we are seeing is subsidised by massive depreciation. This is putting huge inflationary pressure on the lease costs of new vehicles – in essence robbing Peter to pay Paul. It is also encouraging a new wave of lease contract extensions. The net result is that we are likely to lose thousands of potential new EV registrations this year.
Our job at the BVRLA is to make sure that policymakers look beyond isolated metrics and media soundbites and understand that they do not represent the blueprint for a rapid and sustainable transition.
This is why, with the help of dozens of members, we have spent the last month putting together a detailed submission for the Government’s ZEV Mandate consultation and 2025 Spending Review.
Despite the imbalance in the market and the diversity of our membership, there is a remarkable degree of consensus across our industry about what needs to be done and where.
It has given us a really strong foundation for our Government engagement this year and we will be sharing more details next week.
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